Investing through uncertainty

Nick Foy, CFP®
nick@greenwaywealth.com

As coronavirus fears have irked markets globally, it gives us an opportunity to redefine how we respond to uncertainty and its impact on portfolios.

Ben Carlson has done a nice job providing some thoughts on our headline risk du jour, but we want to give you some additional insight.

First, the nature of risk is that it’s unpredictable. And whether the cause of the turmoil is political, economic, health related, or some other nuisance, we know that the future, by definition, is unknowable.

Not long ago, the markets were deeply disturbed by the interactions between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and the potential for war between the United States and North Korea. Imagine having fallen into a coma in 2010 and awoken to see that as a headline. 

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Where We’ve Been; Where We’re Going (rd 2)

Nick Foy, CFP®
nick@greenwaywealth.com

In July of 2018, I wrote a post that gave some details about my background and vision for Greenway. Take a look here, and I hope you enjoy it.

I thought it was time for a progress report, as the firm has now matured some, and it’s been a pretty great journey thus far.

Since I wrote that post we’ve:

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Cheap is good. Free might not be better.

Nick Foy, CFP®
nick@greenwaywealth.com

Earlier this month, Charles Schwab reduced the cost of trading stocks and ETFs to the lowest possible level: $0.

Since their founding, Schwab has been disrupting the industry by taking advantage of the semiconductor to reduce the cost of investing for everyone. This is a good thing. Independently, Schwab and Vanguard changed the industry more than any other two companies, and average investors are better for it. 

No longer is it the norm for brokers to charge 1% (or more) of a transaction amount just to trade a stock. No longer is it standard for a mutual fund manager to charge in excess of 1% (or more) annually to attempt to beat the market, which they rarely do anyway.

Research and technology made things better, as did market competition. 

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What if our stuff told the truth?

Nick Foy, CFP®
nick@greenwaywealth.com

Your stuff lies to you, and to me, and to everyone else.

We use our stuff to tell lies to others, and they believe them, because we typically don’t let people see our balance sheet or our cash flow.

Our houses tell lies, and so do our cars. Our clothes, our trips, even our Instagram accounts do too. We use them to tell the story of our own financial success, which we know gets translated into success in life (for some weird reason). Sometimes, the success is real, and sometimes it’s fake. But as long as it’s documented well for our neighbors and our family, it doesn’t really make a difference.

I’m in a position to get to peak behind the curtain a bit, and ascertain whether the perceived success has any underpinning in reality, or if it’s all a facade. I get to see the truth. I wish our stuff would tell the truth, too, so everyone could be more honest with themselves and others about their current financial status. It would probably help to provide some better perspective about how meaningless stuff can actually be. 

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Why personal finance is like dieting: there are no shortcuts

Nick Foy, CFP®
nick@greenwaywealth.com

Back at the 2008 Summer Olympic Games, Michael Phelps became known for more than just his historic gold medal accumulation: he also became known for his diet. During the training and the games, in order to keep up with the energy needed to perform at a world class level, he’d put down 12,000 calories a day.

Although he later admitted that the figure was somewhat exaggerated, the quantity of food he ate while training was still rather daunting:

Breakfast: Three fried-egg sandwiches with cheese, lettuce, tomatoes, fried onions and mayonnaise. Two cups of coffee. One five-egg omelette. One bowl of grain. Three slices of French toast topped. Three chocolate-chip pancakes.

Lunch: One pound of pasta. Two large ham and cheese sandwiches with mayonnaise on white bread, plus energy drinks.

Dinner: One pound of pasta, an entire pizza, and even more energy drinks.

Olympic level swimmers burn between 3,000 and 10,000 calories per day, so all that intake was put to good use.

Wouldn’t it be nice, though, to be able to eat whatever you want, not exercise, and still lose weight?

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